As much as the Trump presidency has been marked by incredible tumult and controversy, it's also unique in its stability. "An exhaustive look at the demographic realities of the Electoral College by Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin of the Center for American Progress shows similar promise and peril for Democrats in key midwestern battleground states. At least that is the conclusion reached by The Cook Political Report, a non-partisan political newsletter that analyzes political races. RT @amyewalter: I know we don’t really do holiday parties these days, if you’re looking to drop some awesome political knowledge and trivia…, The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 (202) 739-8525 info@cookpolitical.com. Lean : These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage. The week started with the release of an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that showed President Donald Trump losing to both former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Elizabeth Warren by 8-9 points. That's a dangerous assumption to make, too. We saw this same dynamic at play on Tuesday night. Solicitor General Paul Clement and Cook Political Report Editor Amy Walter Featured at June 2016 Annual Meeting & Conference Register today for the State Bar of Wisconsin 2016 Annual Meeting & Conference – and see plenary speakers former U.S. States), (6 States), (4 Cook Political Report Forecast. Information is provided 'as is' and solely for informational purposes, not for trading purposes or advice. In 2016, 81 percent of white men and women with college degrees turned out to vote compared with just 56 percent of non-college white men and 60 percent of non-college white women. The state of Texas just surpassed its 2016 vote total and early voting isn’t over as the Cook Political Report moves that state to a toss-up. Still, as they themselves note, anything could happen. Of course, that's also a very risky bet to make. States), The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037 (202) 739-8525 info@cookpolitical.com. Moreover, white, non-college voters made up 51 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, 54 percent in Michigan and 58 percent in Wisconsin. The index, developed by Charles Cook of the The Cook Political Report , compares each congressional district's score to that of the nation as a whole. Charlie Cook, one of the most respected political experts in the country, believes Hillary Clinton has only a 25-30 percent chance of not running for President. If there's any lesson to take from the torrent of data that's been released this week, it's that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Trump's vote share in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, as well as in the ABC/Washington Post survey, basically mirrors his job approval rating. These latest polls and election results are telling the same story we've been seeing and hearing for the last two-plus years. The good news for Democrats, write Teixeira and Halpin, is that the midwestern battleground states "should generally see a 2-point increase in the percent of white college graduates and minorities among eligible voters as well as a 2-point decline in the percent of white non-college eligible voters." ... and Democrats, 197,000. David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has found a similar divide going back over two decades. All Rights Reserved. Though they have more money and a better, more sophisticated campaign infrastructure, the Trump campaign is using the same playbook from 2016. Copyright © 2018 by Cook Political Report. Overall, they write, "these states are slow growing and remain heavily white, with particularly large white noncollege-educated populations." With Trump unwilling and unlikely to try and win support in suburban areas, he can't afford to lose much if any ground from these voters. Those voters aren't just a core constituency for Trump, but Brownstein notes, they "make up just over 44% of Wisconsin's electorate, with the women slightly outnumbering the men." And, of course, Tuesday night ushered in more good news for Democrats as they flipped the state legislature in Virginia and defeated a GOP Governor in Kentucky. Total Solutions Plus – Indian Wells, CA. More specifically, as I wrote back in 2018 — and other analysts including the intrepid Ron Brownstein wrote about this week — non-Evangelical, white, non-college women. This was the final projection for the 2016 election from Cook Political Report. The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election as a Trump vs. Clinton forecast. Factual Reporting: HIGH Country: USA World Press Freedom Rank: USA 45/180 History. Compare that with a state like Arizona (77 percent white), Texas (61 percent white) or North Carolina (72 percent white). Dave Wasserman, US House editor for Cook Political Report, said Tuesday it's time to "sound the alarm" that Joe Biden is likely to be the next President of the United States. The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037. : These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. The Trump campaign is counting on finding more like Bauch. Overall, according to the Cook Political Report, Democrats would pick up five to seven Senate seats, and Clinton would likely turn at least a couple of red states blue in the presidential race. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast. : These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. : These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning. It was 43 percent in North Carolina and just 41 percent in Colorado. Hence the Trump campaigns huge digital ground game spending this early in the cycle.McClatchy's Alex Roarty found one of those voters in a reporting trip to rural Wisconsin. States), (5 All Rights Reserved. Their analysis of the 2016 vote found that white voters made up 82 percent of the Pennsylvania electorate, 92 percent of the Michigan electorate, and 90 percent of the Wisconsin electorate. States), (17 David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor, The Cook Political Report. But, he does have a chance to win thanks to the demographic make-up of key Midwestern battleground states. The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the US House of Representatives, US Senate, Governors and President as well as American political trends. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below. Trump isn't 'collapsing' nor is he gaining. Copyright © 2018 by Cook Political Report. **Maine and Nebraska can split their electoral, (15 Updated Nov 8, 2016 at 1:24pm (Getty) ... Cook Political Report. The Cook Political Report is an American online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the United States House of Representatives, the United States Senate, Governor's offices and the American Presidency. Likely Detailed Report. Solicitor General Paul Clement and Cook Political Report editor Amy Walter, as well as choose from a broad array of CLE sessions. It “swung against Trump more than any swing state,” according to Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. In Virginia, Democrats were able to flip former GOP strongholds in suburban Richmond and Washington, DC. Corey Bauch is a 44-year-old libertarian who didn't vote for Trump in 2016, because he "reminded him of an arrogant boss." He's (narrowly) holding onto that coalition that got him his win in 2016. He’s one of the very few political seers who ... Wasserman covers congressional races for the nonpartisan and widely respected Cook Political Report. At this stage of the race, that makes sense since it is a referendum on Trump. The other reality, which we saw pretty clearly in 2017-2018, is the degree to which red and blue America are becoming more entrenched in their identities. Likely : These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged. The party representations are based on the winners of the 2018 U.S. House elections. "I'd like to 'sound the alarm' on Joe Biden: he's likely to win next week's presidential election," wrote Wasserman, who is the U.S. House editor for Cook Political Report. ... NPR revisits 2008 York voters after 2016 election. Trump will probably not win, but that is far from certain. Despite losing big in the suburbs in 2017, 2018 and 2019, the Trump campaign has zero interest in doing what it takes to win them back. Or, as Texiera and Halpin write, the biggest impact for the Democrats in the midwest "would come from a move of the very large white non-college group—probably led by white non-college women—back toward their Democratic support levels of 2012. Check out Cook’s chart of the changes below, via their report. Lean On Monday, however, New York Times/Siena polling from six battleground states showed a much tighter race for the Electoral College. And, "the slow rate of racial and ethnic change in these states presents a more favorable dynamic for the GOP than in the two other swing regions." As Nate Cohn wrote in his analysis for the New York Times, "the president's lead among white, working-class voters nearly matches his decisive advantage from 2016. But as the 2000 and 2016 elections showed, the popular vote is not the sole determinant of presidential elections; the Electoral College makes the final call. Trump is unpopular and polarizing, which makes it all but impossible for him to win the popular vote. It also assumes that Trump maxed out his base in 2016, leaving few, if any, non-college white voters for the campaign to turn out. "[T]he most likely way the president can win next November — and the way Republicans are already preparing in earnest for him to pursue," wrote Roarty, "is with voters like Bauch, in rural regions of key battleground states, who didn't back Trump in 2016 but are inclined to do so now." Quotes are not sourced from all markets and may be delayed up to 20 minutes. Solid Dave Wasserman, who is House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, tweeted Wednesday that their forecast was being updated, predicting that Democrats gain 30 … Coverage of Senate and Gubernatorial races is headed up by Editor Jessica Taylor and coverage of House races is led by David … This table is sourced from the Cook Political Report's 2016 analysis for districts of the 116th United States Congress, calculated according to the results of the 2012 and the 2016 U.S. presidential elections. Unlike 2016 the Trump campaign has the money and the infrastructure to find, target and turn out each and every Trump-friendly voter. David Wasserman (The Cook Political Report) - June 20, 2016: "At the moment, the likeliest outcome seems like a Democratic gain of five to 20 seats (the Cook Political Report rates 22 GOP-held seats as Toss Up, Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic, compared with four Democratic seats in Toss Up, Lean Republican and Likely Republican). October 25, 2016. The poll offers little evidence that any Democrat, including Mr. Biden, has made substantial progress toward winning back the white working-class voters who defected to the president in 2016, at least so far. If you feel whipsawed from the last round of polling and election results, well, you are not alone. This was the final projection for the 2016 election from Cook Political Report. Maximize turnout from the base at all costs and hope that Democrats nominate a candidate who will be even more unappealing to the suburban voters who have abandoned the party. While Cohn's analysis finds little to no slippage of support for Trump from non-college white voters, Brownstein argues that "warning signs" emerged for Trump about his standing with non-evangelical whites without college degrees in recent polling in Wisconsin by Marquette University Law School. Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report, expects Clinton to take the Oval Office. The Watergate, 600 New Hampshire Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037. All the leading Democratic candidates trail in the precincts or counties that voted for Barack Obama and then flipped to Mr. On Tuesday morning, the story was of a president in electoral peril as a national Washington Post/ABC News poll showed Trump trailing all of the leading Democratic contenders by double digits. Democrats don't need to win these voters. To learn more or to subscribe, visit The Cook Political Report. Now, however, Bauch sees "the president's outspoken style as an antidote to Washington's pervasive corruption." Solid : These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. The Cook Political Report has issued projections since 1984 with accuracy ratings routinely only coming barely shy of 100%. Suburban and urban America are becoming darker blue, while exurban and rural America is a deep hue of red. So, is Trump flailing badly and going to lose big(ly), or does he have a real path to winning the Electoral College? The Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman predicted Joe Biden will "likely" win the presidential election.. Wasserman, the House editor for the … : These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested. Former U.S. A new interactive collaboration by NBC News and The Cook Political Report finds that if 2016's rates of turnout and support were applied to 2020's new … It was founded by political analyst Charlie Cook in 1984. In fact, many argue that this 'bet' on demographics is what lost Clinton the election in 2016. In other words, if all things stayed equal — Trump got the same share of white, non-college voters and the Democratic nominee got a similar vote as Clinton among white college-educated voters and voters of color, that would be enough to tip Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, to Democrats. This means that the key voting block to focus on in 2020 is white, non-college women. While in Kentucky, a weak GOP governor didn't drag down the other Republicans on the ticket in this ruby-red state. Wasserman detailed several reasons why Biden has a better chance of defeating Trump than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. That would result in easy Democratic victories in the Rust Belt three of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and would even make Iowa and Ohio competitive." 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